In global politics, there were elections in Iraq and the matter of forming the government has become complexed. The elections were done with certain specifics. After Saddam these were the third elections. One element in this election was that it was lowest participation in election whereby only 42% casted votes. Those who had the rights of votes from them 58% did not vote for anyone. From the 42% that were casted around 4 to 5 groups got the votes. There are some Kurd groups, Arab groups, Sunni, Shia and Secular groups. There is a secular group of Iyad Allawi whichhas taken some votes, then Nouri Maliki‘s party has taken votes, then after that the party of Haider Aamri has taken votes who was the representative of Hashad us Shabi. Then the maximum votes that came was for Moqtada Sadr. The Current Prime Minister Haider El Abadi has almost lost the elections as he got the lowest votes. This pattern which has come out, whereby from around 350 seats, 54 seats Moqtada Sadr got but no one has any such majority which can form the government. They will have to do alliance to form a government. For that there is lobbying going on with external pressure and internal lobbying. Various groups are visiting each other, meetings are being done in Baghdad, Najaf, Kurdistan and various other cities. There are deals going on and in all this perspective the important aspect in making the government from both external and internal pressure is that no such government should be formed which is a supporter of Iran. There should not be any effect of Iran in the new government.
The two parties which has got maximum seats; Nouri Maliki who is on the third position and Hyder Amari from Hashad us Shabi is on the second position after Moqtada Sadr. These two are under the influence of Iran and they have good relationship with Iran. There is a strong possibility that they will make government. At present there is severe pressure and force from America, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Arab states, Turkey and all other foreign powers to not allow that government to be formed in Iraq which is influenced by Iran. This is because Syria, Lebanon, Yemen are the nations that are under the influence of Iran. They have made this policy for Iran to bring Iran under pressure from various dimensions and make this region empty from Iran. They want Iran to leave Syria and Israel is afraid, having sleepless nights with Iran present in Syria. Iran is present in Lebanon and its supported group is dominant there which is worrying Israel. Iran has influence in Yemen due to which Saudi is worried. For this reason to get Iran out of these nations there is a severe and merciless pressure on Iran. The Iraqi politics is part of this pressure game and it is possible that at the last moment Iraqi elections might be declared as void and re-elections would be done so that someone wins with apparent majority. If they see that an Iranian supported, influenced government is about to be made in Iraq, then at the last moment they might suspend the elections and they will start elections again. Whenever there are elections and no one is in a position to form a government or elections have not given a decision result then in order to make it decisive the elections are made void and re-elections are done. This is also possible in Iraq that can be done. First the attempt is made to ally anti Iran groups and form a government.
The Iran’s intervention is high on Kurds. Recently the rebellion which Kurds announced. Then there was referendum done and that issue got resolved with the intervention of Iran. Now also the elections that were done there also the possibility is high that Iran supported groups will form a government but looking forward it seems like they will not allow this to happen. The Iraqi national, religious, communal leadership and the America, Saudi, Israel are all on the same page. They all don’t want an Iranian supported government. When ISIS had occupied Iraq and then with Hashad us Shabi they were cleansing ISIS then at that time also the operation had to be stopped because the speed with which they were cleaning ISIS, then in a month they will free Iraq from ISIS after which Iran will have control over Iraq. The Iraqi leadership there decided that ISIS is better for Iraq than the Iranian system of Wilayat-e-Faqeeh. They did this practically whereby ISIS took more 1.5 years, causing destruction was because of this mentality. For Iran, Iraq is a tough front as there has been a long war between the two. Due to this war the community of both the countries also do not have place for each other in their hearts specifically for Iraqis. Iranians are not that sensitivity since Najaf and Karbala is present in Iraq; hence Iraq is a need for Iranians for the sake of these sacred places. But the Iraqi people are fed up with Iranians even if they are Shia because this is the way they have been nurtured.
The group that has come openly as Anti Iran from Shias is that of Moqtada Sadr who has openly raised the slogan of forming a government that is Anti Iran. He says I want to form a government on Arab communal grounds and he has made attempts to establish Iran opposition groups. He made relationship with Saudi Arabia before elections. Saudi supported heavily to Moqtada Sadr in elections and now also they are fully supporting him. Ammar Hakeem is in half support. From inside the policy of Ammar Hakeem’s policy is to make such a government which pleases West as well as everyone else in the world. We should have good relationship with Arabs; Egypt, Saudi, Europe and America should all be our friend. Hence he is also near to Moqtada Sadr’s thinking. They are making attempts to ally with Iyad Allawi who is a secular party, communist and secular person. The support which Saudi Arab provided to Moqtada Sadr resulted into him getting more Sunni votes than Shia. From Sunni votes he gathered 54 seats. Previously Sunni votes were going to other parties but this year with the help of Saudi certain votes of Sunni’s have come towards Moqtada Sadr.
Finally there has been a strenuous efforts, lobbying, alliances being done in Iraq for the formation of government with foreign intervention on peak. Since no one can predict Iraqi politics; no one can predict what Moqtada Sadr will say tomorrow. Today he is opposing Iran and yesterday he was in favor of Iran, living in Iran and was against America. No one can say anything about Iraq. The history of Iraq is like this only whereby there is no prediction about Iraq. If you read the sermons of Imams (a.s) you will see same Iraq. If you read the sermons of second Caliph you will see the same Iraq. If you see the state of Imam Hassan (a.s) and Imam Hussain (a.s) then we see it is unpredictable as to which direction they will go. But still Iraqi’s have got the opportunity to come out of oppression, whereby Saddam perished and they came out of that oppression. But the opportunity they got to compensate for the historical losses they did not utilize it. There is a complete reluctance and frustration in the Iraqi’s from Islamic government. They don’t come towards religious government. In fact they have written certain things in their constitution which emphasizes that Iraq will be an Arab system, it will be a federal state, and it will be democratic so that in future no one can even think that this can become an Islamic state. They have stopped this path in the constitution itself. There are 65% Shias in Iraq and around 20% Kurd and rest are non-Kurd Sunnis. It is also agreed that the Prime Minster will be Shia and President will be Kurd. But at present the associations and foreign pressure is been given more considerations and all attempts are being made to not allow Iran to become dominant in Iraq.