Political Markaz - The Northern Alliances in Afghanistan 2018 Political Analysis

The Northern Alliances in Afghanistan 2018 Political Analysis

The Northern Alliances in Afghanistan 2018 Political Analysis

Jan 04,2019 Comments Download

In 2018 one act started in Afghanistan which will move forward in 2019. As I have been saying before that Afghanistan was in the past also a center of global tussles. Then this center moved to Arab nations where they got disgraced and now again they are moving back to Afghanistan. The complete structure of ISIS has been moved to Afghanistan and all terrorists groups in Syria have been gathered in Afghanistan. Taliban were already in control in Afghanistan. As per news 70% of Afghanistan is under control of Taliban and only 30% is under government control.

America has dropped the idea of war with Taliban and has gone into negotiations with the mediation from Pakistan. The first round has taken place and second round is about to start. An historic thing which has happened during all this is that it has been formally announced from Iran that Iran has also demanded negotiations with Taliban. An Afghan Taliban delegation has visited Tehran and have negotiated with ministry of foreign affairs and has done some negotiations. This has been looked upon from what perspective even though Iran has said that we do not agree with Taliban and their Ideology but due security concerns; as Iran has border with Afghanistan hence there is a need. The reality is that the Taliban has gone into decisive mode.

First of all the American supported government in Afghanistan has become weak, then there are terrorists groups in Afghanistan which are American supported and America has previously fought against Taliban; and after that war America and Taliban relationship was spoiled. Taliban has demanded strongly that America has to walk out from Afghanistan.

America has also said that we no more wanted to be world policeman and we will walk out from Afghanistan. In order to manage the situation after leaving they have presented negotiations between government and Taliban. They have asked Pakistan to intervene to start dialogue with Taliban and these negotiations have started. Since America can do anything; they can go out of Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq and can do whatever they are saying but they will not step back from their enmity with Iran. This enmity with Iran will continue.

Taliban has gone into a decisive mode during this period. They have continued their operations and have taken over big provinces, cities from government and are dominant in Afghanistan. They have become a power which cannot be defeated in Afghanistan. It is like Syria, where there was one sided operation to bring down the government of Bashar Assad where all united forces came against him. If he would have been left on his own for even a week, he would have fallen down and his government would have ended. But at the right time Iran, Hezbollah entered and defend him; then with Russia stepping in the entire map changed and now America and others had to leave Syria.

The Arab nations are establishing contacts with Syria now. The same scenario is being repeated in Afghanistan. America was considering itself in a single dominating position in Afghanistan but the neighbors of Afghanistan strengthened Taliban to secure themselves from ISIS. This ISIS was a new force which was moved from Syria and Iraq into Afghanistan.

Since Iran has experience to counter ISIS they took this step in Afghanistan to support Taliban to stop ISIS. And they also secured Iran’s interest from Taliban. Now looks like an alliance of Iran, Taliban is being made to counter America and Russia might also be part of it. The same scenario of Syria is being repeated in Afghanistan. Iran, Pakistan and Russia will be supporter of Taliban and Iran is insisting that America should get out of Afghanistan.

Trump has given strange statements; one statement he has given about the past Afghan war. He has given a statement in favor of Russia. During Russia’s presence in Afghanistan where America had fought against Russia, but Trump has said that Russia was right at that time. Since Afghan terrorists were a threat for Russia and for its defense Russia came inside Afghanistan. And American office bearers have asked clarification from Trump as to what nonsense he has spoken. We have fought against Russia and have defeated Russia and the American president is now saying that Russia was right.

All these statements are pointing towards a fact that the scenario of Syria will be repeated. Taliban have visited Moscow, they are doing negotiations with America, Iran and Pakistan is between. In this situation the same thing which happened in Syria would be repeated. America will have to get out of Afghanistan and in their place Russia and the neighboring countries will take over Afghanistan.

But Afghanistan is a complex land and the same situation of Syria will not happen so easily in Afghanistan. From this perspective we cannot see security taking place in the neighborhood of Pakistan so soon. Such plans are being made and in the past also Afghan war has damaged PK a lot and if this again happens then it would be more damaging to PK specifically when our politicians, rulers are entangled with each other and not concerned about Pakistan and at the same time when India has also announced war with Pakistan, and this situation is coming up in Afghanistan then this is serious.

Afghanistan is also an Islamic land and we are also sympathetic for them. Since decades there are conflicts in Afghanistan and thousands have lost their lives, that nation also deserves peace. This can only happen when they develop the sense of freedom; they get salvation from America, Russia and others. Till the time they are dependent on America, Russia and Arabs this will not happen.

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